I was told this was a conspiracy theory. It’s actually a 177-page UN report: https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/unpd-egm_200010_un_2001_replacementmigration.pdf
Some excerpts:
Past trends
At the middle of the 20th century, the average fertility level stood at 2.6 children per woman in
Europe, and 2.4 children for the countries of the European Union (see table IV.1). For the countries in this
study the range was from 2.2 children per woman in Germany and the United Kingdom, to 2.7 children in
France and in Japan. Fertility was markedly higher in the United States, 3.4 children, and even higher in
the Republic of Korea, 5.4 children per woman. By 1965-1970, fertility had increased a little on average
for the countries of the European Union, to 2.5 children per woman, but had fallen below replacement
level in the Russian Federation and in Japan, at 2.0 children, and had also decreased in the United States,
to 2.5 children and more slowly in the Republic of Korea, to 4.7 children. By 1995-2000, fertility was
below replacement level in all countries and regions of the study, with a relatively wide range of levels,
from a high of 2.0 children in the United States to 1.2 children in Italy. The average for Europe and for
the European Union was 1.4 children per woman.
Discussion
In the absence of migration all eight countries and the two regions with fertility below
replacement will see their total population start declining before 2050 and their populations in the
working-age group 15-64 years will decline even faster. Their populations will also age very rapidly.
However many, if not most of them, have had immigrants in the recent past, and can be expected to have
immigrants in the future also.
GERMANY
Past trends
While the total fertility rate increased steadily, from 2.16 to 2.49 children per woman, between
1950-1955 and 1960-1965, Germany experienced a continuous decline afterwards, to 1.30 children per
woman in 1990-1995. As in other countries in Western Europe, life expectancy increased during the
entire period between 1950 and 1995. It reached 76 years for both sexes during the interval of 1990-1995,
up from 67.5 years for 1950-1955. One of the results of increased life expectancy and low fertility rates is
the process of population ageing. The proportion of the population aged 65 years or older increased from
9.7 per cent in 1950 to 15.5 per cent in 1995. The potential support ratio declined from 6.9 persons aged
15-64 years for one person aged 65 years or over in 1950 to 4.4 persons in 1995.
Scenario I
Scenario I, the medium variant of the United Nations 1998 Revision, assumes a net total of 11.4
million migrants between 1995 and 2050. For the years 1995-2005 it estimates 240,000 migrants per year
and for the period between 2005 and 2050 a net migration of 200,000 persons per annum. For the overall
population of Germany the medium variant projects an increase from 81.7 million in 1995 to 82.4 million
in 2005. Thereafter, the population would continuously decline to 73.3 million in 2050 (The results of the
1998 United Nations projections are shown in the annex tables). The population aged 15-64 years would
slightly increase from 55.8 million in 1995 to 56.0 million in 2000; between 2000 and 2050 it would
continuously decrease to 42.7 million. The share of the elderly (65 years and above) would increase from
12.6 million in 1995 (15.5 per cent) to 20.8 million in 2050 (28.4 per cent). Consequently, the potential
support ratio would be halved, decreasing from 4.4 in 1995 to 2.1 in 2050.
Scenario II
Scenario II is based on the fertility and mortality assumptions of the medium variant of the 1998
Revision of the United Nations, but without any migration to Germany after 1995. Compared to scenario
I, the total population would decrease much faster, from 81.7 million in 1995 to 58.8 million in 2050, a 28
per cent decrease for the total population. The population aged 15-64 years would decrease even faster:
from 55.8 million to 32.7 million, a 41 per cent loss. In the absence of any migration, the population aged
65 or older would increase to 18.7 million by the year 2050. As a result, the potential support ratio in
scenario II would decrease from 4.4 in 1995 to 1.8 in 2050.
Scenario III
Scenario III assumes a constant total population between 1995 and 2050 (81.7 million). Keeping
the population at such a level would require substantially higher immigration to Germany than anticipated
by the United Nations 1998 Revision. Between 1995-2050, a total of 17.8 million net migrants would be
needed, an average of 324,000 per year. Such a migration flow would result in a population 15-64 of 48.4
million, and the group of 65 years or older would increase to 21.4 million in 2050. The potential support
ratio would decline from 4.4 to 2.3 in 2050. In 2050, out of a population of 82 million people, 23 million
(28 per cent) would be post-1995 migrants or their descendants.
Scenario IV
Scenario IV keeps the size of the population aged 15-64 years constant at the 1995 level of 55.8
million until the year 2050. This would require a total of 25.2 million migrants between 1995 and 2050,
an average of 458,000 per year. The total population of Germany would increase to 92 million in 2050, of
which 33 million (36 per cent) would be post-1995 migrants and their descendants. The potential support
ratio would be 2.4 in 2050.
Scenario V
Scenario V keeps the potential support ratio constant at its 1995 level of 4.4 until 2050. The total
of immigrants needed between 1995 and 2050 to keep this ratio constant would be 188.5 million, which is
an average of 3.4 million migrants per year. In 2050 the total population would be 299 million, of which
80 per cent would be post-1995 migrants and their descendants.
Discussion
Net migration in the years 1990-1992 was close to 680,000 individuals per annum. That number
decreased between 1993-1998 to about 270,000 persons per year. The net numbers of migrants needed to
keep the total population constant (324,000 per year), or to keep the age group 15-64 year constant
(458,000 per year) are within the range of the experience of the past decade. However, to maintain the
current potential support ratio of 4.4 would require an influx of 3.4 million migrants per year. This
number would be more than ten times the yearly amount of migrants entering Germany during 1993-
1998.
Figure IV.6 shows, for scenarios I, II, III and IV, the population of Germany in 2050, indicating
the share that are post-1995 migrants and their descendants. By the end of 1997, foreigners accounted for
almost 9 per cent of the total population in Germany. This should be compared to the proportion by the
year 2050 of the post-1995 migrants and their descendants: 20 per cent in scenario I; 28 per cent in
scenario III; 36 per cent in scenario IV; and 80 per cent in scenario V.
In absence of migration, the figures show that it would be necessary to raise the upper limit of the
working-age to about 77 years in order to obtain in 2050 the same potential support ratio observed in
1995 in Germany, i.e. 4.4 persons of working-age per each older person past working-age.
United Nations Population Division, Replacement Migration 39
Source: https://x.com/1776General_/status/1970162424188633384
PM Viktor Orban exposed the document proving George Soros is largely behind the global illegal immigrant invasion.
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